Drug market growth may or may not be stable
Since 2007, until into GongJianQi, groped after 10 years of practice, the new medical reform of medical health industry: the impact of emerging in the early "strong base, increase investment" level, benefit from the policy dividend, industry won more than 17% for five consecutive years of growth, and even reach 20% in 2010;As health reform enters the stage of "controlling costs and raising efficiency", the new policy of systematizing and three-dimensional reform has also pushed the growth rate to single digits since 2015.From 2008 to 2016, the size of six terminal drugs increased from 483.5 billion yuan to 14.909 billion yuan, with an average annual compound growth of 15.1 percent, according to the China kang CMH monitoring data.
Improving drug quality, lowering drug prices and curbing drug abuse are the main themes of future industry policy orientation, and the growth rate of the pharmaceutical industry may be stable.China's drug market is expected to reach 15.773 billion yuan in 2017, a 5.8 percent increase from 2016 and a further growth rate.Key policy further fall to the ground in the future, as the new medical reform, technology innovation comprehensive strength strong penetration, commercial insurance, speed up cross-border fusion, industry dominance will differentiation to consumers, and create basic medical and health consumption dual market structure;Health industry growth will gradually shift from product to service;The supply chain structure combining specialized division of labor and systematic service will gradually form.
The city level hospital is stable in half of the mountain
Kang CMH research data, from the six terminal market share, city level hospital in 2016 accounted for 55.0% of the medical market, county level hospital market accounted for 17.8%, urban grassroots medical market and rural grassroots medical market accounted for less than 6.0%, respectively, of retail pharmacies accounted 16.4%, online pharmacies only accounted for 0.3%.
The scale of drug use in grade hospitals accounts for 87.9% of the total hospital terminal, and the future is still the largest drug terminal.Among them, the city grade hospital is still unshakable as the largest drug terminal: in 2016, the market of urban grade hospitals reached 820.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%.
Although the new reform aims to reconfigure the medical resources, through the classification diagnosis and treatment measures such as cluster large hospital patients with effective shunt to the grassroots medical institutions, but the grade hospital reform is not yet fully in place, patients habits remain entrenched.According to national health development planning commission, 2017 1 ~ 4 month, hospital visits to 1.06 billion person-time, increased by 3.0% over the previous year, including the growth of the third class hospitals is as high as 5.4%, far higher than the national overall level (1.0%).The number of clinics in primary medical institutions increased slowly or fell slightly, and the total number of clinics in township hospitals fell by 2.7 percent year-on-year.
In 2016, the market medicine size of county level hospitals reached 265.5 billion yuan, up 7.5% year on year, and the compound growth rate was 20.8%.Past the rapid growth of county level hospital market scale is mainly thanks to the new farmers and the improvement of the expansion of coverage and financing needs of clinic, plus brand medicine medicine structure changes resulting from sinking.New farming and coverage has reached 95%, less and less space expansion, coupled with zero rate area expansion, the rapid growth of county level hospital market began to slow, is predicted to grow 6.3% in 2017, the size of the market reached 282.2 billion yuan.
Aspects at the grass-roots level, the new health care reform advocates the classification diagnosis and treatment, the first option at the grass-roots level to promote grassroots medical development, the new farmers and enhance residents' ability to pay and other policy leads, the primary care market after brief growth, due to the strengthening of the basic medical and public health service function and change the way of examination, grassroots medical services in return to the state of steady growth, the national health development planning commission data show that in 2017 1 ~ 4 month, grassroots health institutions visits 1.42 billion person-time, reduced by 0.7% compared to the same;The number of discharged patients was 133.19 million, a decrease of 1.6 percent year on year.Although parts of non drug slightly loosen restrictions on positive, but the overall drug market growth flatten out at the grassroots level of couplet of primary care in the future market growth is largely due to the medical model of comprehensive ground is carried out.
The market share of retail pharmacies will gradually increase with the policy guidance of medical separation and prescription outflow.In 2016, China's drug retail market totaled 337.7 billion yuan, an increase of 8.5 percent from 2015.Drug is expected in 2017, retail terminal market growth will stabilize, but the medicine separation, prescription outflow and expensive medicine (apt) channel transfer policy, such as retail terminal terminal will lead the growth of hospital.
Driven by the disruptive development of the Internet, the online pharmacies that originated in 2011 are still in the high growth stage and the market share is trending upward.In 2016, the total sales volume of Chinese online pharmacies reached 235 billion yuan, up 50.9 percent from 2015.The drug scale up to 4.5 billion yuan, 27.1% in online pharmacy management, because the prescription drugs sold on the Internet has not been lifted, is expected in 2017, the Internet will further decline of drug sales accounted to 24.7%.
Rise of retail pharmacies
With the help of factors such as rising disposable income and upgrading of healthy consumption, the pharmaceutical health industry has enjoyed rapid growth.Among them, the status of retail pharmacies has been improved rapidly, and the market size of 337.7 billion yuan has become one of the main forces of the industry.
1. Increased concentration: the chain rate will exceed 50%
After the barbaric growth of the pharmaceutical retail industry, began to enter the development period of branding and chaining.In 2016, the total number of registered pharmacies in the country was 447, 000, 1,023 fewer than in 2015, according to the CFDA statistical report.The total number of drugstore stores has started to decrease for the first time, and the total number of independent pharmacies has dropped by 6.9% in 2015, and the rate of chain stores has increased by 3.6 percentage points compared with 2015, to 49.4%.Chain rate increase at the same time, the average each chain stores instead of falling, as long as apply for qualification of chain pharmacies because in some parts of the policy standards to reduce the cause, the retail chain pharmacy rate in 2017 is expected to top 50%.
2. Market size expansion: it will reach 364.7 billion yuan in 2017
Urbanization, aging and fertility rate have contributed to the growth of healthy consumer demand while also bringing positive benefits to retail pharmacies.In 2016, the volume of drug sales of retail terminals was 244.7 billion yuan, up 8% from the same period last year, according to the China kang CMH data.Non-drug sales volume was 93 billion yuan, up 12 percent year on year.The overall retail market is expected to reach 364.7 billion yuan in 2017, up 8.0% year on year.
And as the number of online drugstores has slowed since its peak in 2015, its impact on offline drugstore traffic has weakened, and drug store traffic has picked up slowly.According to the data of China kang CMH, there were 3,277 passenger/store/month sales per month in the comparable sample stores in 2016, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%.The unit price is 57.7 yuan/person/time, up 2.8 percent year on year.Among them, the contribution of passenger orders to drugstore sales growth reached 58%.
At the same time, the trend of retail pharmacies is becoming more and more obvious, with the retail chain increasing year by year, with the sales volume reaching 123.5 billion yuan in 2016, accounting for 36.6% of the retail market.In 2016, there were more active mergers and acquisitions activity of more than 1 billion annual sales, and the sales volume of the top 100 companies increased by 2.5 percentage points.
3. Consumption upgrading and boosting category development
Affected by the reform of public hospitals, health insurance control and drug companies, drug companies have sought out the layout of the outside market.The DTP pharmacy boom has been a pioneer in driving prescription drug growth in retail stores.The market share of OTC drugs in the retail market was 125.1 billion yuan, with a market share of 51.1 billion yuan, according to the China kang CMH research data.RX drugs sold 119.6 billion yuan, with a market share of 48.9 percent.Prescription drugs accounted for 61.2% of incremental contributions.The growth rate of RX in the retail market is expected to continue to exceed OTC over the next year.
It is worth noting that in the prescription drug subdivision category, anti-tumor and immune-regulating agents in the retail terminal prescription drug market in 2016 were 4.05%, a year-on-year increase of 60.4%.Its market share is expected to grow to 4.86% in 2017 and continue to grow at a high rate (40.7%).Predictably, under the impetus of the prescription outflow of relevant policies, and the incidence of chronic diseases brought by the population aging under the influence of factors such as the importance of prescription drugs in pharmacy will be stronger and stronger.
At the same time, factors such as consumer upgrading and health care awareness promoted the high value category growth of OTC with health care., according to data of kang CMH study important category in the retail pharmacy, medicine class the most significant growth: the year-on-year growth jumped from 8.3% in 2015 to at least 17.9%, is expected to still maintain double-digit growth in 2017 (16.0%).Therefore, the future consumers' demand for health and health care will become the primary pain point of enterprises.
It is not hard to see that the potential of retail pharmacies is being activated.According to the information forecasting, in the next decade, counter-measures on the premise of fully realized, in the pharmaceutical retail pharmacy market scale will reach 1.72 trillion yuan (constant), accounts for about 65% of all drugs terminal market;Industry concentration will also be greatly improved, with a rate of 70%;It is one of the main body of China's drug market to complete the industry business model iteration "from channel function to service and value regression".
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