Medical network on December 14th - this report continuation of our previous analysis framework, focus from industrial policy environment, the operation data and trend analysis. The contents of this report is worth focusing on: we systematically comb in industry policy, terminals, medical insurance fund for hospital and pharmaceutical manufacturing industry data has carried on the comprehensive analysis, on the international giant and low valuations bibcock company valuation and growth. We believe that the current reform process to accelerate, the investment on the preferred low valuations bibcock, focus on blood plate and pharmaceutical business, etc.
A, industry reform process accelerating in many aspects
Speeding up the bidding progress; Two votes promotes gradually; Public hospital reform direction; Drug approval reform comprehensive ground; The vaccine case began medicine circulation regulation; Medical insurance directory adjustment start; The medical service price reform. The overall industry reform process accelerating in many aspects.
Second, the pharmaceutical industry operating conditions at the bottom of the stabilizing
Our hospital terminal data are analyzed comprehensively, the national medical and health institutions, health care data volume data, statistics data and operation data of listed companies. We think the boom of industry after the slash 2013, 2014 and 2015 remain low, September 1, 2016 is stabilized at the bottom of the whole operation. The hospital drugs terminal growth rate of 7.4%, up slightly; Health insurance fund-raising and spending growth is further reduced; Recovering from a growth in hospital; Bureau of pharmaceutical manufacturing growth and profit growth of listed companies are stabilizing.
2012 hospital terminal growth rebound, the market rebound in overall growth in 2011 from 17.05% to 20.89%. Remove antibiotics after the rebound in growth from 22.79% to 26.37%, and higher than the growth in 2010. 2013 hospital terminal growth rate dropped significantly, however, the market overall growth dropped to 13.43%, after eliminating antibiotic growth dropped to 15.83%. Industry growth is further reduced to 11.58% and 12.17%, 2014. Industry growth continues to fall in 2015, 4.94% and 5.47%, respectively. 2016 years ago in the third quarter, the industry as a whole growth rebounded, hospital medicine terminal growth of 7.4%, after eliminating antibiotic growth of 8.1%.
Third, investment strategy
Compared with the same period in 2014 and 2015, the apparent valuation pressure relief, medicine plate. We recommend investment strategy, the preferred low valuations, focus on blood plate and pharmaceutical business, etc.
We present the investment strategy seven aspects: 1, recommend low valuations leading companies. We analyzed the global pharmaceutical giant's growth with the current valuations, and with the domestic top 25 large-cap stocks, growth and valuation of charming, we believe that the domestic large-cap stocks charming has investment value. Focus on Shanghai pharma, east China pharmaceutical, fosun medicine, letter litai, method group, f medicine, sig pharmaceutical industry, the company, koren pharmaceutical industry, etc.; 2, the boom of sustained high blood products industry. On ST biochemical, made by hualan bio-engineering, etc; 3, value the policy of medicine circulation industry such as the benefit of two votes. Two votes + concentration camp to increase will force to promote circulation industry, good medicine business leading company, bullish on kyushu, Shanghai pharmaceutical, its consistent, etc.; 4, innovative drug development prospects. The development of domestic drug innovation environment is getting better and better. Bullish hengrui pharmaceutical, hundred million sails medicine, beida pharmaceutical companies such as; 5, agent export industries. We like huahai pharmaceutical co., f medicine, squire pharmaceutical companies such as; 6, watch the prospects of the development of medical service. On love, ophthalmology, letter states pharmaceutical, yi hundred pharmaceutical companies such as health and beauty years; 7, good benefit consistency evaluation of CRO and medicinal materials. Watch the tiger medicine, er kang pharmaceutical, medicine auxiliary sunvo company, etc.
Fourth, focus on the company
1, ST biochemical
Undervalued blood products leading enterprises
Company's core assets in guangdong country shuanglin for dormant for many years the growth potential of the largest blood products leading enterprises, tons of pulp market value is significantly undervalued. Guangdong country shuanglin mining slurry amount is about 300 tons, the company has 13 pulp station, there are five mature pulp station, three 16 years new mining slurry, and another five will be obtained by plasma qualifications. Shanxi four are waiting for the issuing of blood syndrome. In December 2015 have been approved in guangdong in 4 stations of sole collection of plasma dongyuan, lianjiang, SuiXi blood stations have begun to adopt pulp; At the same time there are still several plasma stations and substations in application. We think the company in 2016-2018 for plasma volume reached 310 tons, 400 tons, 400 tons, the future will be to 1000 tons, become a giant of blood products. At the same time the company's current market value of 32.53 million tons of pulp yuan, significantly less than 45.5 million yuan, made by hualan bio-engineering boya creatures of 93.22 million yuan, Shanghai alex's 129.51 million yuan.
2, made by hualan bio-engineering
Has the rich product line
Company is blood products industry leading enterprises, has 11 varieties, a total of 34 specifications of the products, is the domestic blood products in the enterprise product line complete, comprehensive utilization of the highest corporate. Company will be based in henan, chongqing and other major, every year new 1-2 plasma stand the speed of development. In plasma volume from 2016 to 2018 expected to reach 1000 tons, is expected to become the largest company in mining slurry amount during much starker choices-and graver consequences-in. International aspect, the company ACYW135 group of meningococcal polysaccharide vaccine WHO certification progress is expected to have substantial progress. Sheet resistance development is progressing satisfactorily. Single drug resistance is one of the world medicine the generally acknowledged star of growth for the past ten years, has nearly 10% of global drug sales. As global single main varieties resistant patent gradually maturing, domestic single drug resistance to meet development opportunity and company do early active layout.
3, tasly
Traditional Chinese medicine modernization and internationalization of leading enterprises
The Dan drops as successfully obtained FDA certification, is the world's first modern compound proprietary Chinese medicine, means that the company had the internationalization of traditional Chinese medicine can replicate pathway, radiation effect on subsequent varieties. Future is expected to fully promote internationalization strategy, including company own several traditional Chinese medicines, chemical medicine, biological medicine and other cooperative enterprises (yunnan baiyao, ridge, etc.) varieties have been applied or are preparing to submit an application. Company CRO services provided to the world federation of Chinese medicine enterprises internationalization, and then an alliance enterprises to join, to provide international subsidiaries tasly pharmaceutical industry based on North America drug administration regulations, developmental studies, marketing, project introduction and other services, is expected to form the internationalization of Chinese medicine in the army.
4, Watson biological
The strongest biological medicine platform are looking forward to the revaluation
Company is the most clear a-shares layout complete large biological medicine enterprise. Company based on innovation, product is king, expand the boundary, from low barriers, traditional vaccines, where competition is fierce, and the extension into wide space, high barriers to new vaccines, sheet resistance and blood products. Company has formed great biological medicine industry chain layout, each field with strong competitiveness, is the strongest a-share biological medicine platform. |
