Medical network - July 10 at home and abroad history proves that health care can often through the callable bull/bear contracts in the market, and is born camp big market winners. Guangfa healthcare aspiring fund manager qiu jiing kun, said health care industry is a new turning point, in the future in this area will have larger rising space.
The four signs
Medical indication of large space
Qiu jiing kun optimistic, at present the four signs is quietly reveal the health care industry a better future opportunities and larger space layout, which is based on his continuous in-depth study on the health care industry.
Qiu jiing kun said, the pharmaceutical industry is a transparent industry, medical health care industry bureau of statistics released every month and each niche business revenues, profits, spending, and so on and so forth, he carefully analysis the data can be found four big signs.
"The fact is that the health care industry watershed twice, once in 2013, the second at the end of 2016." Qiu jiing kun explanation, historical data shows that before 2013, is said to be a golden decade of medicine, at that time, there are two big development is the foundation: one is the health of Chinese people's rate more sharply increased from 70% to 70%; The second is the amount per capita increase rapidly from 40 to 50 yuan to four hundred yuan, the two big ascension has given rise to a "golden decade", the entire industry to maintain 20% 30% growth each year.
The high jiing min said, however, changed after 2013, health-care spending surge pressure lead to fiscal gap, related restrictions, then brings the entire health care industry revenue growth begins to decline gradually, from 30% in the fourth quarter of 2016 reached 8%, the lowest level of 9%, and now back up to 12% - 15%. As a result, he industry profitability since the fourth quarter of 2016 was gradually recovered, the boom of it is good sign.
The high jiing kun talked about the second turn good sign is that medicine stock valuations, since the 2008 crash pharmaceutical stocks continue to rise, a lot of ten times the ox, from 2013 to 2013, however the industry in a horizontal plate digestion process of valuation. And according to the pharmaceutical industry static valuation of comparable companies in about 25 to 30 times in level, basic valuation and growth performance matching condition.
"And the third is good sign is the health care industry" and to delegate, to market new vitality." The high jiing kun said.
In addition, the high jiing kun also said China is now in the process of consumption upgrade, consumption upgrading of medical service, health care, medical equipment, precision medical and other fields have a better driver, follow-up space is larger. These signs are he thought the health care industry is currently the layout better point sufficient reason.
8 years deep study the health care industry "all-round" selectivity
As a member after 80 "young turks", a fund manager, the high jiing kun investment has a lot of style, both heavy grasp industry trends and adept at picking stocks.
Unlike other fund managers, the high jiing min walking is the "path to by private into the public", not only on the medical research has been continued, wider coverage for industry research, too. According to his introduction, 2009 entrants to join private equity as a researcher, internal harmony, interactive strong research atmosphere let he have more in-depth knowledge of industry research, company research, and focuses on real estate, chemical industry, medicine, the three major industries. Built in 2012, he joined the letter fund, also around the study of the pharmaceutical industry. Join guangfa fund since May 2014, from the pharmaceutical industry researcher on a path to a fund manager, in April 2016 began to manage public funds.
Investment, the high jiing kun attach more importance to "top-down" and "bottom-up", based on the macro economic judgment, to track the real estate consumer, pharmaceutical, building materials, home appliances and various industry data. He particularly hard, these industry data does not rely on external research organization, is one by one check, and tracking every month.
"Since last may was gradually formed through the lateral comparison found that industry trend." The high jiing kun said, it is found from the data of fine point the industry trend. For example this year a better home appliance industry, may according to the industry growth rate reached 40%, air conditioning leading enterprises growth rate is over 50%, basic reflects the excellent enterprise depend on the scale, brand, channel gain more advantages in the current market condition. So the performance on the secondary market, also is the home appliance industry overall performance is very good, but reasonable leading enterprises to do better.
Judgment, it is because the industry of high jiing kun according to these data, combined with the market sentiment and fundamental judgment weight for individual stocks, the operation will give different proportion.
The high jiing min about the management guangfa healthcare can also demonstrate his idea. According to what he said, compared with other medical industry fund manager, he is a whole industry of fund managers, more comprehensive. "The data on the industry comparison can be found every month which industries business degree is high, coupled with the secondary market is the market style preferences, then choose health care on the underlying niche or company." He said.
Selected industry and stocks
Talked about in the second half of the market, the high jiing kun truth, from the economic fundamentals, policy, the current big trend of opportunity does not big, but the overall trend downward risk is not big, so focus on selected industry and stocks.
Qiu jiing kun said, the overall macro economy since the second half of last year continued performance is good, especially the typical PPI, PMI moves all the way up, the whole GDP growth than expected. But since the first quarter of this year, basically all kinds of macroeconomic data have been absolute peak. At present the RMB exchange rate is in stable condition, relative pressure on smaller so the impact is smaller.
In addition, the high jiing kun, said the IPO issuance speed slow, plus the refinancing, underweight, such as the new rules, the market is in positive direction. And more bullish on liquor in the short term, home appliance, consumer electronics, medical, the boom of smart home and other higher industry, might continue in the second half performance.
When it comes to buying strategy, the high jiing kun said, the future will be steady position strives to maintain steady growth fund performance. In the current moment, on the one hand, will be positive in the health care industry layout of varieties suited to the current market, On the other hand also can actively looking for the company across the callable bull/bear contracts. "Can the company across the callable bull/bear contracts, in addition to good business prospects, usually need to have a good management team, a good variety or fundamentals, will continue in the next three to five years have exceeded industry growth returns. I will, analyzing the specific issues not layout for the layout." |
